Stability and resilience: why luxury real estate withstands crises

Between 2022 and 2024, the French property market went through severe turbulence, triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates. Did the luxury segment really hold up better? Yes, but with nuances. Here is what data from notaries, the Banque de France and specialist networks show.

The rate shock: a mainstream market under pressure

According to the ACPR, part of the Banque de France, the average rate on new home loans peaked at 4.17% in January 2024. In 2023, new home lending fell to €129.5 billion, its lowest level since 2015, according to the Banque de France. Rates have since eased, averaging 3.21% in spring 2026.

Prices followed. According to the Notaires du Grand Paris, prices of existing homes in Île-de-France fell by 10% between the third quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024. In Paris, the adjustment in apartment prices since 2022 reaches 10.1%. In the first quarter of 2026, the average price of existing Paris apartments stabilised at around €9,600/m².

The high end: a correction, then a faster rebound

Luxury was not spared. Barnes, the leading prestige network in Paris, itself refers to two years of correction in the Paris high-end market. But the rebound was sharper:

• Barnes' turnover in central Paris rose by 20% between 2024 and 2025;
• in the first half of 2026, sales above €3 million rose by 54% in volume in its Paris offices;
• the segment above €5 million averages €27,500/m², with peaks above €50,000/m².

Resilience does not mean immunity. Over the first five months of 2026, Barnes reports a 10% drop in the volume of its central Paris business, which it partly attributes to buyers waiting for the municipal elections. According to the network, the market is not slowing down but polarising, in favour of the rarest properties.

Why prices at the very top hold up better

1. Less reliance on credit

This is the key factor. A large share of prestige buyers have their own funds and can buy in cash. As Junot points out, this cash-buying capacity mechanically limits the impact of rate changes. Sotheby's International Realty Côte d'Azur already noted in 2023 that difficulties obtaining credit are rare in the luxury segment. However, no public statistic precisely measures the share of cash purchases in this segment.

2. Scarce supply

The most prestigious neighbourhoods cannot expand. For Barnes, a single driver prevails across the prestige market: the scarcity of the location. When supply is structurally limited, sellers are rarely forced to cut prices sharply.

3. Sellers in no hurry

An owner with no outstanding mortgage has no repayments to meet. They can withdraw the property and wait, which limits the forced sales that drive prices down in the mainstream market.

4. International "safe haven" demand

According to Barnes, 2025 and the first half of 2026 saw the return of international buyers, especially Americans. The network links this to the geopolitical context, which reinforces the appeal of French property as a safe haven. At Daniel Féau, 36% of sales above €5 million were made to foreign buyers, according to its deputy CEO Sophie Berg (2025).

The case of the western Paris suburbs

The western Paris area illustrates these multi-speed dynamics. In the first quarter of 2025, Barnes recorded an average price of €12,035/m² there, down 4% year on year, but with signed preliminary sale agreements up 15%. In 2026, the network cites very fast sales: in Versailles, a 79 m² apartment sold at the first viewing, on the day it came to market. Quality, well-located and correctly priced properties find buyers quickly; others must adjust.

In summary

The very top of the market does not escape cycles, but it goes through them differently. Less dependent on credit and supported by scarcity and international demand, exceptional properties correct less and rebound faster than the mainstream market. The rule remains the same: only rare, well-located and fairly priced properties fully play their role as a safe haven.

Sources

• ACPR / Banque de France – Housing finance in 2024 (July 2025, in French)
• Banque de France – Loans to individuals, May 2026 (in French)
• Europe 1 / Banque de France – 2023 home lending at lowest since 2015 (in French)
• Notaires du Grand Paris – Press release, 29 January 2026 (in French)
• Notaires du Grand Paris – Press kit, Q1 2026 (in French)
• Barnes – France study, press release (July 2026, in French)
• Le Media Immo – Barnes annual study 2026 (in French)
• Ondes de l'immo – Barnes Q1 2025 review (in French)
• Junot – Buying a château in 2026 (in French)
• Côte d'Azur Sotheby's International Realty – Luxury real estate market (2023, in French)
• MySweetImmo – Interview with Sophie Berg, Daniel Féau (July 2025, in French)

This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is no guide to future trends.